The Bayesian View of Extreme Events

نویسنده

  • Allan McRobie
چکیده

A key step in “Designing for the Consequences of Hazard” is choosing which hazards to design for. This paper argues that the Bayesian perspective is the rational and prudent framework.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Active Distribution Networks Restoration after Extreme Events

After extreme events such as floods, thunderstorms, blizzards and hurricanes there will be devastating effects in the distribution networks which may cause a partial or complete blackout. Then, the major concern for the system operators is to restore the maximum critical loads as soon as possible by available generation units.  In order to solve this problem, this paper provides a restoration s...

متن کامل

Impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation events in arid (Bandar Abbas) and semi-arid (Shahrekord) stations in Iran

The aim of this paper is to project extreme precipitation events in an arid and a semiarid station. In order to project climate change based on general circulation models (GCMs), we have applied LARS-WG[1] downscaling tool. This stochastic weather generator down-scaled the climate of two synoptic stations using HADCM3 model and A2 emission scenario for 2040. We extracted extreme precipitation e...

متن کامل

Investigation of the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with extreme rainfall events over the Coastal West Africa

This study investigates the atmospheric circulation associated with extreme rainfall events over the coastal West Africa. The rainfall data of this study were obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), spanning from 1981 to 2010. The atmospheric datasets were also obtained from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The study employed the Z-Index to categorize dry and wet years into...

متن کامل

An Overview of Statistical Methods for Studying the Extreme Rainfalls in Mediterranean

Extreme rainfall is one of the most devastating natural events. The frequency and intensity of these events has increased. This trend will likely continue as the effects of climate change become more pronounced. As a consequence, it is necessary to evaluate the different statistical methods that assess the occurrence of the extreme rainfalls. This research evaluates some of the most important s...

متن کامل

Dynamic Safety Analysis CNG Stations Using Fault Tree Approach and Bayesian Network

Introduction: The safety of CNG stations is important because of their location in urban areas, as well as to prevent accidents and to protect the safety of personnel, property, and environment. An event occurrence analysis with probability updating is the key to dynamic safety analysis. Methods and materials: In this study, the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) technique was used to d...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2004